Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.17 – 57.43

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283 ±13.9

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 69.72Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 12.95Rank 48Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

79Team 79 Krunch

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 8.5Rank 55Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.4 ±15.6

2797Knight & Nerdy

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 4.09Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3627The Jungle Robotics

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 29.15Rank 53Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2152S*M*A*S*H

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 24.19Rank 44Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 801, 9404, 79

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 801, 9404, 79

Auto

23.5 26%

Teleop

43.4 48%

Endgame

24.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2797, 3627, 2152

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2797, 3627, 2152

Auto

10.5 19%

Teleop

39.6 71%

Endgame

5.7 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.2pts

Blue projected score57.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.7
Score range: 38–110
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 108.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283Season APEX260.4

23.5Auto10.5

43.4Teleop39.6

24Endgame5.7

71Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	5
teleop	45	19
endgame	28	13
foul	0	0
total	95	37

Result

Final score

95 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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