Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.46 – 102.16

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.6 ±16.9

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 107.64Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7500MARAUDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 11.5Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6473Rock Star Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 10.32Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.6 ±17.7

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 25.55Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 53.75Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8057All Wired Up

Provisional

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 22.86Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8159, 7500, 6473

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8159, 7500, 6473

Auto

40.5 33%

Teleop

55.6 45%

Endgame

26.3 21%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4622, 86, 8057

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4622, 86, 8057

Auto

11.2 11%

Teleop

58.3 56%

Endgame

35.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.5pts

Blue projected score102.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.3
Score range: 83–148
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 107.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.6Season APEX282.6

40.5Auto11.2

55.6Teleop58.3

26.3Endgame35.2

60Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	35
teleop	127	44
endgame	56	33
foul	0	0
total	238	112

Result

Final score

238 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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