Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.66 – 106.73

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

133 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.1 ±17.2

11097TROPICAL FORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 1.48Rank 23Record 4-3-1Status provisionalConfidence 70

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 84.43Rank 5Record 6-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX -2.25Rank 24Record 4-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.7 ±16.9

9670The Gadgeteers of St. Johns County

Provisional

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 25.22Rank 39Record 2-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 70

7431Wingspan

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX -13.93Rank 58Record 1-6-1Status establishedConfidence 86

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 95.44Rank 10Record 5-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11097, 8841, 1523

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11097, 8841, 1523

Auto

20.6 23%

Teleop

51.3 58%

Endgame

16.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9670, 7431, 8817

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9670, 7431, 8817

Auto

10.0 9%

Teleop

68.9 65%

Endgame

27.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.7pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.1
Score range: 65–126
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 107.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.1Season APEX305.7

20.6Auto10

51.3Teleop68.9

16Endgame27.1

0Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	21
teleop	64	65
endgame	25	47
foul	15	0
total	133	133

Result

Final score

133 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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