Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

51.46 – 51.46

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 73.5 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.6 ±19.7

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX -Rank 48Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10650Robonoles Robotics Team

Provisional

Season APEX 55.3Event APEX -Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7500MARAUDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.2 ±13.3

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX -Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX -Rank 5Record 6-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX -Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9404, 10650, 7500

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9404, 10650, 7500

Auto

15.4 30%

Teleop

25.7 50%

Endgame

10.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 233, 8841, 21

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 233, 8841, 21

Auto

15.4 30%

Teleop

25.7 50%

Endgame

10.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.5pts

Blue projected score51.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 32–70
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 102.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.6Season APEX413.2

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	20
teleop	1	111
endgame	0	35
foul	5	0
total	19	166

Result

Final score

19 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 73.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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