Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

310.76 – 59.55

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

293 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.1 ±12.2

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 230.32Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 47.91Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 32.53Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.6 ±19.8

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 10.27Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

431PinkZilla

Provisional

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 39.37Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11103Redshift Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 9.91Rank 26Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 180, 1592, 744

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 180, 1592, 744

Auto

61.2 20%

Teleop

175.9 57%

Endgame

70.7 23%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3164, 431, 11103

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.6 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3164, 431, 11103

Auto

15.4 27%

Teleop

26.6 47%

Endgame

14.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score310.8pts

Blue projected score59.6pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 251.2
Score range: 41–330
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 106.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.1Season APEX204.6

61.2Auto15.4

175.9Teleop26.6

70.7Endgame14.5

11Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	32
teleop	150	12
endgame	71	6
foul	0	5
total	293	55

Result

Final score

293 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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