Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.72 – 222.26

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202 ±19.4

6322OneClay ARMORY

Provisional

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 14.69Rank 45Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 55.4Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4024TechnoSaints

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 7.63Rank 35Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.6 ±12.9

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 156.57Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 72.09Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -6.4Rank 46Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6322, 8324, 4024

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6322, 8324, 4024

Auto

11.7 15%

Teleop

42.4 54%

Endgame

23.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 179, 233, 10228

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 179, 233, 10228

Auto

35.5 16%

Teleop

134.7 62%

Endgame

46.6 21%

Strengths

· 179 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77.7pts

Blue projected score222.3pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -144.5
Score range: 59–241
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 105.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202Season APEX489.6

11.7Auto35.5

42.4Teleop134.7

23.7Endgame46.6

21Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	55
teleop	51	61
endgame	25	31
foul	10	10
total	101	157

Result

Final score

101 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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