Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.07 – 92.63

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.5 ±19.4

5993Istech Robotics Society

Provisional

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 93.21Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 17.98Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5145WolfBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX -12.12Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.4 ±12.9

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 6.69Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2797Knight & Nerdy

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 3.51Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 82.43Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5993, 21, 5145

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5993, 21, 5145

Auto

16.0 17%

Teleop

51.6 53%

Endgame

28.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5816, 2797, 3932

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5816, 2797, 3932

Auto

9.1 10%

Teleop

57.9 62%

Endgame

26.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.1pts

Blue projected score92.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.4
Score range: 74–118
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 105.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.5Season APEX359.4

16Auto9.1

51.6Teleop57.9

28.9Endgame26.8

29Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	28
teleop	40	75
endgame	1	19
foul	0	0
total	65	122

Result

Final score

65 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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