Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.11 – 80.55

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.2 ±15.9

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 90.78Rank 10Record 5-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 34.01Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11222STAXX, Sponsored by NASA

Provisional

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 23.32Rank 47Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.3 ±18.2

7717Steam Punks

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 32.2Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3627The Jungle Robotics

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 35.95Rank 53Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7500MARAUDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 12.4Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8817, 1902, 11222

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8817, 1902, 11222

Auto

31.7 22%

Teleop

70.2 48%

Endgame

44.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7717, 3627, 7500

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7717, 3627, 7500

Auto

16.4 21%

Teleop

30.0 38%

Endgame

31.8 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score148.1pts

Blue projected score80.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.6
Score range: 62–167
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 105.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.2Season APEX334.3

31.7Auto16.4

70.2Teleop30

44.4Endgame31.8

45Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	18
teleop	102	23
endgame	50	14
foul	0	5
total	188	60

Result

Final score

188 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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