Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.36 – 75.86

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

77 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.4 ±14.5

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 9.61Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 4.33Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 29.42Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.6 ±19.3

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 24.45Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9670The Gadgeteers of St. Johns County

Provisional

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 22.53Rank 39Record 2-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 70

10211Cyber Colts

Season APEX 56Event APEX 28.88Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10981, 3164, 744

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10981, 3164, 744

Auto

7.6 18%

Teleop

24.3 57%

Endgame

10.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4622, 9670, 10211

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4622, 9670, 10211

Auto

8.4 11%

Teleop

38.9 51%

Endgame

28.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43.4pts

Blue projected score75.9pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.5
Score range: 24–95
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 106.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.4Season APEX196.6

7.6Auto8.4

24.3Teleop38.9

10.4Endgame28.9

6Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	5
teleop	39	32
endgame	15	36
foul	5	0
total	77	73

Result

Final score

77 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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