Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.57 – 25.18

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

287 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.8 ±12.8

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 33.96Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 96.75Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 60.86Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172.1 ±20.5

6722LED Robotics

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 15.03Rank 54Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6322OneClay ARMORY

Provisional

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 9.59Rank 45Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11097TROPICAL FORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 0.56Rank 23Record 4-3-1Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1592, 8159, 801

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1592, 8159, 801

Auto

51.9 28%

Teleop

109.5 58%

Endgame

26.5 14%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6722, 6322, 11097

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.2 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6722, 6322, 11097

Auto

12.1 50%

Teleop

0.9 4%

Endgame

11.0 46%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score191.6pts

Blue projected score25.2pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 166.4
Score range: 6–211
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 106.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.8Season APEX172.1

51.9Auto12.1

109.5Teleop0.9

26.5Endgame11

37Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	21
teleop	148	30
endgame	86	8
foul	0	0
total	287	59

Result

Final score

287 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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