Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.23 – 142.05

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±14.5

7431Wingspan

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX -11.73Rank 58Record 1-6-1Status establishedConfidence 86

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 79.4Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 18.56Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.9 ±13.3

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 58.3Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 30.73Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 53.02Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7431, 386, 3164

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7431, 386, 3164

Auto

27.3 34%

Teleop

36.1 45%

Endgame

17.5 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 801, 5816, 8324

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 801, 5816, 8324

Auto

24.6 18%

Teleop

76.2 56%

Endgame

35.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score86.2pts

Blue projected score142.1pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.8
Score range: 62–166
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 130.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.4Season APEX271.9

27.3Auto24.6

36.1Teleop76.2

17.5Endgame35.8

45Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	13
teleop	19	84
endgame	0	44
foul	10	0
total	51	141

Result

Final score

51 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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