Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.64 – 56.91

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

273 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 103.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 475.2 ±15.9

10650Robonoles Robotics Team

Provisional

Season APEX 55.3Event APEX -25.79Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 18.2Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 130.23Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.2 ±17.3

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 19.13Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 20.8Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

155712 Volt Bolt

Provisional

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 16.98Rank 51Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10650, 1902, 179

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10650, 1902, 179

Auto

19.1 16%

Teleop

73.5 61%

Endgame

27.2 23%

Strengths

· 179 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 744, 4622, 1557

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 744, 4622, 1557

Auto

9.9 18%

Teleop

19.6 35%

Endgame

26.8 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score122.6pts

Blue projected score56.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.7
Score range: 38–142
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 103.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

475.2Season APEX280.2

19.1Auto9.9

73.5Teleop19.6

27.2Endgame26.8

65Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	19
teleop	164	57
endgame	53	37
foul	5	0
total	273	113

Result

Final score

273 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 103.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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