Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

33.35 – 27.77

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 24.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.9 ±20.5

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 34.54Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7431Wingspan

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX -10.88Rank 58Record 1-6-1Status establishedConfidence 86

9750ED Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 9.69Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.4 ±18.2

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 9.27Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11222STAXX, Sponsored by NASA

Provisional

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 17.12Rank 47Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

79Team 79 Krunch

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 1.38Rank 55Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9160, 7431, 9750

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9160, 7431, 9750

Auto

11.3 37%

Teleop

25.5 84%

Endgame

-6.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3164, 11222, 79

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3164, 11222, 79

Auto

20.6 83%

Teleop

-2.7 0%

Endgame

6.8 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score33.3pts

Blue projected score27.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.6
Score range: 9–52
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 84 vs event baseline 104.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.9Season APEX239.4

11.3Auto20.6

25.5Teleop-2.7

-6.3Endgame6.8

65Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	23
teleop	4	34
endgame	0	7
foul	0	0
total	20	64

Result

Final score

20 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 24.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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