Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.62 – 113.67

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.7 ±15.3

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 29.95Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10211Cyber Colts

Season APEX 56Event APEX 26.61Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 78.06Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.2 ±16.4

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 15.35Rank 24Record 4-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 99.73Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5145WolfBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX -1.41Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5842, 10211, 233

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5842, 10211, 233

Auto

9.3 7%

Teleop

75.1 56%

Endgame

49.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1523, 8159, 5145

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1523, 8159, 5145

Auto

42.8 39%

Teleop

59.0 54%

Endgame

7.3 7%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.6pts

Blue projected score113.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21
Score range: 95–154
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 105.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.7Season APEX395.2

9.3Auto42.8

75.1Teleop59

49.1Endgame7.3

56Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	12
teleop	84	22
endgame	35	15
foul	5	0
total	146	49

Result

Final score

146 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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