Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.75 – 79.03

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 37.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.2 ±17.7

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 55.15Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -5.05Rank 46Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9670The Gadgeteers of St. Johns County

Provisional

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 36.65Rank 39Record 2-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.2 ±16.8

11103Redshift Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 8.82Rank 26Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 40.48Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 29.73Rank 48Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10219, 10228, 9670

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10219, 10228, 9670

Auto

9.9 12%

Teleop

62.9 76%

Endgame

10.2 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11103, 1592, 9404

/ 100 compat

Projected

79 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11103, 1592, 9404

Auto

21.1 27%

Teleop

42.3 55%

Endgame

13.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score86.8pts

Blue projected score79pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.7
Score range: 60–106
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 106.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.2Season APEX232.2

9.9Auto21.1

62.9Teleop42.3

10.2Endgame13.7

76Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	17
teleop	6	32
endgame	13	9
foul	0	0
total	33	58

Result

Final score

33 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 37.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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