Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.25 – 181

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245 ±15

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 45.59Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -15.49Rank 46Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 24.15Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.1 ±13.5

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 113.49Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 55.26Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2152S*M*A*S*H

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 12.25Rank 44Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1592, 10228, 4622

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1592, 10228, 4622

Auto

18.4 34%

Teleop

17.2 32%

Endgame

18.1 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3932, 86, 2152

/ 100 compat

Projected

181 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3932, 86, 2152

Auto

30.9 17%

Teleop

98.5 55%

Endgame

50.1 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54.3pts

Blue projected score181pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126.7
Score range: 30–205
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 130.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245Season APEX426.1

18.4Auto30.9

17.2Teleop98.5

18.1Endgame50.1

76Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	22
teleop	16	90
endgame	12	26
foul	5	0
total	45	138

Result

Final score

45 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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