Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.46 – 123.83

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.6 ±17.3

9300Olympians

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 0.76Rank 56Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2152S*M*A*S*H

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 26.55Rank 44Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 17.15Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.4 ±17.7

11282Tri-Force

Provisional

Season APEX 62Event APEX 10.9Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6473Rock Star Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 14.64Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 98.29Rank 5Record 6-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9300, 2152, 5816

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9300, 2152, 5816

Auto

14.8 32%

Teleop

17.1 37%

Endgame

14.0 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11282, 6473, 8841

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11282, 6473, 8841

Auto

27.3 23%

Teleop

74.8 63%

Endgame

16.2 14%

Strengths

· 8841 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.83 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.5pts

Blue projected score123.8pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.4
Score range: 25–143
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 95 vs event baseline 103.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.6Season APEX243.4

14.8Auto27.3

17.1Teleop74.8

14Endgame16.2

32Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	28
teleop	0	33
endgame	6	18
foul	0	0
total	16	79

Result

Final score

16 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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