Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 55.28

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.4 ±19.8

10650Robonoles Robotics Team

Provisional

Season APEX 55.3Event APEX -22.51Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX -0.17Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4024TechnoSaints

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 2.98Rank 35Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.2 ±16.8

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 27.61Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 4.74Rank 24Record 4-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6322OneClay ARMORY

Provisional

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 22.93Rank 45Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10650, 3164, 4024

/ 100 compat

Projected

-19.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10650, 3164, 4024

Auto

-4.9 22%

Teleop

-12.6 56%

Endgame

-5.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1902, 1523, 6322

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1902, 1523, 6322

Auto

17.2 33%

Teleop

20.7 39%

Endgame

14.9 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.85 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-19.7pts

Blue projected score55.3pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.3
Score range: -19–74
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 70 vs event baseline 104.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.4Season APEX300.2

-4.9Auto17.2

-12.6Teleop20.7

-5.2Endgame14.9

106Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	16
teleop	4	19
endgame	8	14
foul	0	0
total	21	49

Result

Final score

21 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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