Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.6 – 121.42

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 52.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.8 ±22.5

7500MARAUDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 23.03Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5145WolfBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 7.35Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 31.22Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.2 ±11.6

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 52.08Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 8.6Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 60.74Rank 19Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7500, 5145, 9160

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7500, 5145, 9160

Auto

27.4 48%

Teleop

15.8 27%

Endgame

14.4 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 386, 744, 5410

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 386, 744, 5410

Auto

32.3 27%

Teleop

63.2 52%

Endgame

25.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.6pts

Blue projected score121.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.8
Score range: 43–140
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 103.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.8Season APEX468.2

27.4Auto32.3

15.8Teleop63.2

14.4Endgame25.3

8Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	38
teleop	10	113
endgame	13	51
foul	0	0
total	38	202

Result

Final score

38 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 52.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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