Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.32 – 22.88

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.6 ±18.2

9728Rebel Robotics-BGCCF Joe R Lee Branch

Provisional

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 3.57Rank 33Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 34.67Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2797Knight & Nerdy

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 25.08Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.1 ±18.2

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -9.65Rank 46Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

11363Pickle Squad

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 1.96Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7717Steam Punks

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 30.57Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9728, 4622, 2797

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9728, 4622, 2797

Auto

9.9 16%

Teleop

35.7 57%

Endgame

17.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10228, 11363, 7717

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10228, 11363, 7717

Auto

11.5 57%

Teleop

11.3 56%

Endgame

-2.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.3pts

Blue projected score22.9pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.4
Score range: 4–82
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 59 vs event baseline 104.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.6Season APEX295.1

9.9Auto11.5

35.7Teleop11.3

17.2Endgame-2.7

129Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	14
teleop	5	20
endgame	6	6
foul	0	0
total	19	40

Result

Final score

19 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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