Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.2 – 40.2

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

31 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 11.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.4 ±17.7

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 32.11Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11103Redshift Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 10.49Rank 26Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7431Wingspan

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX -6.4Rank 58Record 1-6-1Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.4 ±20.5

10323DeMolay Dynamics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 18.89Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

155712 Volt Bolt

Provisional

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 21.79Rank 51Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10017GPS Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX -0.48Rank 57Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 21, 11103, 7431

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 21, 11103, 7431

Auto

7.9 22%

Teleop

28.6 81%

Endgame

-1.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10323, 1557, 10017

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10323, 1557, 10017

Auto

8.9 21%

Teleop

13.3 32%

Endgame

19.4 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score36.2pts

Blue projected score40.2pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4
Score range: 17–59
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 54 vs event baseline 106.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.4Season APEX199.4

7.9Auto8.9

28.6Teleop13.3

-1.2Endgame19.4

98Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	15
teleop	11	7
endgame	10	1
foul	0	0
total	31	23

Result

Final score

31 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 11.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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