Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

240.55 – 80.67

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 488.4 ±14.7

431PinkZilla

Provisional

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 27.64Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 115.5Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 97.41Rank 10Record 5-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.6 ±17.3

8057All Wired Up

Provisional

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 38.8Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

79Team 79 Krunch

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 18.85Rank 55Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 23.02Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 431, 179, 8817

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 431, 179, 8817

Auto

30.1 13%

Teleop

149.8 62%

Endgame

59.8 25%

Strengths

· 179 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8057, 79, 5816

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8057, 79, 5816

Auto

14.2 17%

Teleop

42.7 52%

Endgame

24.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score240.6pts

Blue projected score80.7pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 159.9
Score range: 62–260
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 105.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

488.4Season APEX243.6

30.1Auto14.2

149.8Teleop42.7

59.8Endgame24.7

39Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	8
teleop	167	18
endgame	79	5
foul	0	0
total	305	31

Result

Final score

305 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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