Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.34 – 89.42

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 68.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.7 ±14.5

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 78.44Rank 5Record 6-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX -15.36Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 26.26Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257 ±17.2

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 56.47Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6527RamShock

Provisional

Season APEX 65Event APEX 8.63Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 24.32Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8841, 10981, 801

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8841, 10981, 801

Auto

23.4 26%

Teleop

52.5 57%

Endgame

15.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10219, 6527, 5842

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10219, 6527, 5842

Auto

11.9 13%

Teleop

60.6 64%

Endgame

21.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.3pts

Blue projected score89.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.1
Score range: 71–107
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 102.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.7Season APEX257

23.4Auto11.9

52.5Teleop60.6

15.8Endgame21.6

75Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	24
teleop	117	46
endgame	38	47
foul	0	0
total	198	117

Result

Final score

198 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 68.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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