Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.45 – 14.97

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 81.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.1 ±17.3

9750ED Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 42.27Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6473Rock Star Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 25.13Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 32.05Rank 48Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.3 ±17.7

11097TROPICAL FORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX -12.29Rank 23Record 4-3-1Status provisionalConfidence 70

7072O.G.R.E. (Opelika's Greatest Robotics Engineers)

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 13.67Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 13.59Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9750, 6473, 9404

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9750, 6473, 9404

Auto

11.9 14%

Teleop

58.2 67%

Endgame

16.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11097, 7072, 1592

/ 100 compat

Projected

15 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11097, 7072, 1592

Auto

10.6 72%

Teleop

-3.8 0%

Endgame

8.0 54%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.5pts

Blue projected score15pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.5
Score range: -4–118
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 103.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.1Season APEX273.3

11.9Auto10.6

58.2Teleop-3.8

16.7Endgame8

64Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	28
teleop	8	77
endgame	10	14
foul	5	0
total	40	119

Result

Final score

40 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 81.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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