Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.16 – 252.36

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.7 ±19

11363Pickle Squad

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX -16.58Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 13.29Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5993Istech Robotics Society

Provisional

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 72.45Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500.6 ±15.9

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 40.46Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5145WolfBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 4.48Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 207.42Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11363, 1902, 5993

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.2 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11363, 1902, 5993

Auto

18.0 28%

Teleop

27.0 42%

Endgame

19.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 386, 5145, 180

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 386, 5145, 180

Auto

75.9 31%

Teleop

109.0 45%

Endgame

57.5 24%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score69.2pts

Blue projected score252.4pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -183.2
Score range: 51–270
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 100.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.7Season APEX500.6

18Auto75.9

27Teleop109

19.4Endgame57.5

89Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	66
teleop	70	155
endgame	45	58
foul	5	0
total	157	279

Result

Final score

157 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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