Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.68 – 29.49

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.5 ±20.5

6322OneClay ARMORY

Provisional

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 28.34Rank 45Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2152S*M*A*S*H

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 40.81Rank 44Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10017GPS Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 13.53Rank 57Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.9 ±16.8

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 9.79Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11222STAXX, Sponsored by NASA

Provisional

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 17.49Rank 47Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 2.21Rank 24Record 4-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6322, 2152, 10017

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6322, 2152, 10017

Auto

23.7 28%

Teleop

47.4 56%

Endgame

14.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 744, 11222, 1523

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 744, 11222, 1523

Auto

12.6 40%

Teleop

12.6 40%

Endgame

6.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.7pts

Blue projected score29.5pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.2
Score range: 11–101
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 90 vs event baseline 101.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.5Season APEX270.9

23.7Auto12.6

47.4Teleop12.6

14Endgame6.2

71Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	16
teleop	9	16
endgame	0	27
foul	0	0
total	31	59

Result

Final score

31 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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