Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.07 – 52.42

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

98 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.1 ±16.9

10323DeMolay Dynamics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 18.35Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

11103Redshift Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -0.49Rank 26Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 58.21Rank 19Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.2 ±16.9

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 81.15Rank 10Record 5-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6722LED Robotics

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX -6.89Rank 54Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10650Robonoles Robotics Team

Provisional

Season APEX 55.3Event APEX -21.84Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10323, 11103, 5410

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10323, 11103, 5410

Auto

31.3 40%

Teleop

28.0 36%

Endgame

18.5 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8817, 6722, 10650

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8817, 6722, 10650

Auto

-3.8 0%

Teleop

30.0 58%

Endgame

25.6 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76.1pts

Blue projected score52.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.6
Score range: 34–94
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 102.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.1Season APEX290.2

31.3Auto-3.8

28Teleop30

18.5Endgame25.6

31Consistency190

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	9
teleop	67	45
endgame	18	12
foul	0	0
total	98	66

Result

Final score

98 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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