Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.2 – 20.34

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

51 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.5 ±19.7

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 26.72Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9670The Gadgeteers of St. Johns County

Provisional

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 17.99Rank 39Record 2-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 70

7500MARAUDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 35.49Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.5 ±19.8

79Team 79 Krunch

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 23.2Rank 55Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4024TechnoSaints

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -1.79Rank 35Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9728Rebel Robotics-BGCCF Joe R Lee Branch

Provisional

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX -1.07Rank 33Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5816, 9670, 7500

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5816, 9670, 7500

Auto

13.2 17%

Teleop

48.3 63%

Endgame

15.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 79, 4024, 9728

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 79, 4024, 9728

Auto

2.1 9%

Teleop

19.7 87%

Endgame

0.8 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score80.2pts

Blue projected score20.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.9
Score range: 1–99
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 79 vs event baseline 103.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.5Season APEX212.5

13.2Auto2.1

48.3Teleop19.7

15Endgame0.8

28Consistency176

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	16
teleop	18	7
endgame	24	0
foul	0	5
total	51	28

Result

Final score

51 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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