Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.85 – 57.15

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374 ±14.5

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 39.04Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3627The Jungle Robotics

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 10.63Rank 53Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 52.18Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.8 ±20.5

7431Wingspan

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX -6.53Rank 58Record 1-6-1Status establishedConfidence 86

8057All Wired Up

Provisional

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 43.4Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6527RamShock

Provisional

Season APEX 65Event APEX 20.28Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4622, 3627, 233

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4622, 3627, 233

Auto

12.4 13%

Teleop

43.1 46%

Endgame

37.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7431, 8057, 6527

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7431, 8057, 6527

Auto

16.4 28%

Teleop

34.3 58%

Endgame

8.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.9pts

Blue projected score57.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.7
Score range: 38–121
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 104.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374Season APEX211.8

12.4Auto16.4

43.1Teleop34.3

37.5Endgame8

178Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	11
teleop	47	9
endgame	52	3
foul	0	0
total	111	23

Result

Final score

111 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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