Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 226.79

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 132.4 ±20.5

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -16.08Rank 46Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

11097TROPICAL FORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX -20.24Rank 23Record 4-3-1Status provisionalConfidence 70

9300Olympians

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 7.77Rank 56Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380 ±14.9

10211Cyber Colts

Season APEX 56Event APEX 2.09Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 199Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 25.7Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10228, 11097, 9300

/ 100 compat

Projected

-28.5 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10228, 11097, 9300

Auto

2.2 0%

Teleop

-27.4 98%

Endgame

-2.9 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10211, 180, 21

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10211, 180, 21

Auto

51.9 23%

Teleop

127.4 56%

Endgame

49.5 22%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.4 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-28.5pts

Blue projected score226.8pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -226.8
Score range: -18–245
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 101.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

132.4Season APEX380

2.2Auto51.9

-27.4Teleop127.4

-2.9Endgame49.5

101Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	66
teleop	1	162
endgame	0	75
foul	5	0
total	26	303

Result

Final score

26 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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