Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.4 – 127.74

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.8 ±15

7072O.G.R.E. (Opelika's Greatest Robotics Engineers)

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 28.72Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6473Rock Star Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 50.77Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 73.91Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.3 ±14.1

2797Knight & Nerdy

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 16.56Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 12.97Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 98.21Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7072, 6473, 10219

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7072, 6473, 10219

Auto

17.1 12%

Teleop

86.5 59%

Endgame

42.2 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2797, 3164, 8159

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2797, 3164, 8159

Auto

44.4 35%

Teleop

65.9 52%

Endgame

16.0 13%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score153.4pts

Blue projected score127.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.7
Score range: 110–171
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 101.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.8Season APEX441.3

17.1Auto44.4

86.5Teleop65.9

42.2Endgame16

63Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	33
teleop	57	110
endgame	7	14
foul	5	5
total	85	162

Result

Final score

85 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 51.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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