Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

36.8 – 17.71

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

69 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.3 ±14.5

6722LED Robotics

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX -22.06Rank 54Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 15.7Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 43.16Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.1 ±20.5

10017GPS Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 8.91Rank 57Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11222STAXX, Sponsored by NASA

Provisional

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 17.65Rank 47Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3627The Jungle Robotics

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -8.85Rank 53Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6722, 5816, 4622

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6722, 5816, 4622

Auto

8.3 25%

Teleop

8.0 24%

Endgame

17.4 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10017, 11222, 3627

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10017, 11222, 3627

Auto

7.8 54%

Teleop

0.2 1%

Endgame

6.4 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score36.8pts

Blue projected score17.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.1
Score range: 0–55
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 100.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.3Season APEX200.1

8.3Auto7.8

8Teleop0.2

17.4Endgame6.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	24
teleop	24	21
endgame	31	8
foul	0	0
total	69	53

Result

Final score

69 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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