Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.24 – 74.41

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 58.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.1 ±17.3

11282Tri-Force

Provisional

Season APEX 62Event APEX 1.99Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

79Team 79 Krunch

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 7.27Rank 55Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 15.98Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.3 ±19.7

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 36.92Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11103Redshift Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -2.9Rank 26Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8057All Wired Up

Provisional

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 40.39Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11282, 79, 386

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11282, 79, 386

Auto

5.6 25%

Teleop

6.8 30%

Endgame

10.1 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 233, 11103, 8057

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 233, 11103, 8057

Auto

7.3 10%

Teleop

38.0 54%

Endgame

25.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score25.2pts

Blue projected score74.4pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.2
Score range: 7–92
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 99.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.1Season APEX311.3

5.6Auto7.3

6.8Teleop38

10.1Endgame25.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	16
teleop	47	61
endgame	14	34
foul	0	0
total	106	111

Result

Final score

106 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 58.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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