Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

11.32 – 55.14

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

40 – 19

Prediction missed · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.8 ±20.5

9728Rebel Robotics-BGCCF Joe R Lee Branch

Provisional

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 2.05Rank 33Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1744Robo-Rays Robotics

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 34.01Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10650Robonoles Robotics Team

Provisional

Season APEX 55.3Event APEX -24.74Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.1 ±18.2

2152S*M*A*S*H

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 50.64Rank 44Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX -6.61Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5145WolfBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 11.11Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9728, 1744, 10650

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9728, 1744, 10650

Auto

9.7 100%

Teleop

-13.7 0%

Endgame

11.8 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2152, 10981, 5145

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2152, 10981, 5145

Auto

14.4 29%

Teleop

24.9 50%

Endgame

11.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score11.3pts

Blue projected score55.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.8
Score range: -7–73
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 59 vs event baseline 102.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.8Season APEX206.1

9.7Auto14.4

-13.7Teleop24.9

11.8Endgame11

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	13
teleop	20	6
endgame	11	0
foul	0	0
total	40	19

Result

Final score

40 – 19

Prediction missed · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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