Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.24 – 91.64

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

12 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.2 ±15

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 19.59Rank 24Record 4-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10323DeMolay Dynamics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 45.29Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 0.36Rank 46Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.7 ±16.8

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 25.57Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 49.95Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9300Olympians

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 16.12Rank 56Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1523, 10323, 10228

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1523, 10323, 10228

Auto

7.0 11%

Teleop

40.0 62%

Endgame

17.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1902, 801, 9300

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1902, 801, 9300

Auto

22.7 26%

Teleop

29.9 34%

Endgame

35.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65.2pts

Blue projected score91.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.4
Score range: 46–111
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 46 vs event baseline 105.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.2Season APEX314.7

7Auto22.7

40Teleop29.9

17.9Endgame35.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	16
teleop	4	12
endgame	0	6
foul	0	0
total	12	34

Result

Final score

12 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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