Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.13 – 87.2

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.2 ±19.3

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 64.59Rank 10Record 5-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6527RamShock

Provisional

Season APEX 65Event APEX 9.8Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9750ED Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 25.74Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.5 ±14.5

6473Rock Star Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 47.54Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 29.82Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 9.84Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8817, 6527, 9750

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8817, 6527, 9750

Auto

13.3 13%

Teleop

70.8 71%

Endgame

15.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6473, 21, 5842

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6473, 21, 5842

Auto

9.8 12%

Teleop

45.3 57%

Endgame

24.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.1pts

Blue projected score87.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.9
Score range: 68–119
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 105.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.2Season APEX209.5

13.3Auto9.8

70.8Teleop45.3

15.3Endgame24

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	3
teleop	96	57
endgame	51	17
foul	0	0
total	164	77

Result

Final score

164 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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