Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109.08 – 82.22

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

76 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.9 ±17.2

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 71.84Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 43.02Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11097TROPICAL FORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX -5.78Rank 23Record 4-3-1Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.1 ±16.8

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 5.1Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 68.29Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11363Pickle Squad

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 8.83Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8324, 86, 11097

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8324, 86, 11097

Auto

14.5 13%

Teleop

63.2 58%

Endgame

31.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 744, 10219, 11363

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 744, 10219, 11363

Auto

11.4 14%

Teleop

58.4 71%

Endgame

11.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109.1pts

Blue projected score82.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.9
Score range: 63–128
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 106.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.9Season APEX317.1

14.5Auto11.4

63.2Teleop58.4

31.7Endgame11.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	20
teleop	32	39
endgame	31	4
foul	0	0
total	76	63

Result

Final score

76 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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