Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.51 – 81.08

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.9 ±19.3

6322OneClay ARMORY

Provisional

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 23.68Rank 45Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 38.91Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 22.92Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.6 ±20.5

2797Knight & Nerdy

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 26.97Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9670The Gadgeteers of St. Johns County

Provisional

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 35.16Rank 39Record 2-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 70

155712 Volt Bolt

Provisional

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 18.95Rank 51Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6322, 3932, 9160

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6322, 3932, 9160

Auto

18.5 21%

Teleop

42.5 49%

Endgame

26.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2797, 9670, 1557

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2797, 9670, 1557

Auto

-1.0 0%

Teleop

62.7 80%

Endgame

16.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.5pts

Blue projected score81.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.4
Score range: 62–105
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 106.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.9Season APEX208.6

18.5Auto-1

42.5Teleop62.7

26.3Endgame16.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	2
teleop	92	45
endgame	38	14
foul	0	0
total	154	61

Result

Final score

154 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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