Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.04 – 46.36

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

284 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 83.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.3 ±16.4

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 62.66Rank 5Record 6-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7500MARAUDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -7.68Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 62.06Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.1 ±16.8

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 23.83Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10211Cyber Colts

Season APEX 56Event APEX 3.08Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7072O.G.R.E. (Opelika's Greatest Robotics Engineers)

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 19.45Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8841, 7500, 179

/ 100 compat

Projected

117 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8841, 7500, 179

Auto

12.8 11%

Teleop

95.6 81%

Endgame

9.1 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3164, 10211, 7072

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3164, 10211, 7072

Auto

18.4 41%

Teleop

18.1 41%

Endgame

8.1 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score117pts

Blue projected score46.4pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.7
Score range: 27–136
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 103.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.3Season APEX227.1

12.8Auto18.4

95.6Teleop18.1

9.1Endgame8.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	14
teleop	161	23
endgame	58	10
foul	0	0
total	284	47

Result

Final score

284 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 83.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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