Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.3 – 219.7

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 418

Prediction correct · off by 105.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393.4 ±15

7431Wingspan

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 7.43Rank 58Record 1-6-1Status establishedConfidence 86

7717Steam Punks

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 66.76Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX -20.89Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 648.1 ±10.4

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 48.5Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 126.21Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 44.99Rank 19Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7431, 7717, 1592

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7431, 7717, 1592

Auto

11.0 22%

Teleop

18.4 37%

Endgame

19.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8159, 180, 5410

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8159, 180, 5410

Auto

57.4 26%

Teleop

114.0 52%

Endgame

49.0 22%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score53.3pts

Blue projected score219.7pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -166.4
Score range: 36–237
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 96.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393.4Season APEX648.1

11Auto57.4

18.4Teleop114

19.9Endgame49

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	117
teleop	39	226
endgame	10	70
foul	0	5
total	66	418

Result

Final score

66 – 418

Prediction correct · off by 105.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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