Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

45.63 – 26.42

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 62 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.4 ±19

11222STAXX, Sponsored by NASA

Provisional

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX -11.2Rank 47Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

431PinkZilla

Provisional

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 31.2Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 25.63Rank 48Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.5 ±21.4

9300Olympians

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX -8.25Rank 56Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4024TechnoSaints

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -9Rank 35Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5993Istech Robotics Society

Provisional

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 43.67Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11222, 431, 9404

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11222, 431, 9404

Auto

17.9 41%

Teleop

11.0 25%

Endgame

14.7 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9300, 4024, 5993

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9300, 4024, 5993

Auto

7.6 29%

Teleop

9.1 35%

Endgame

9.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score45.6pts

Blue projected score26.4pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.2
Score range: 9–63
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 96.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.4Season APEX151.5

17.9Auto7.6

11Teleop9.1

14.7Endgame9.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	13
teleop	34	50
endgame	34	36
foul	0	0
total	97	99

Result

Final score

97 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 62 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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