Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.03 – 82.8

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.2 ±14.5

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 39.58Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1744Robo-Rays Robotics

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX -0.22Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 26.67Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.8 ±13.4

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 15.65Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 39.58Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6473Rock Star Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 27.57Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 21, 1744, 801

/ 100 compat

Projected

66 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 21, 1744, 801

Auto

8.9 14%

Teleop

36.3 55%

Endgame

20.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1902, 233, 6473

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1902, 233, 6473

Auto

13.8 18%

Teleop

51.4 68%

Endgame

10.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score66pts

Blue projected score82.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.8
Score range: 49–100
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 95.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.2Season APEX455.8

8.9Auto13.8

36.3Teleop51.4

20.7Endgame10.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	11
teleop	46	39
endgame	41	53
foul	0	15
total	117	118

Result

Final score

117 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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