Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.56 – 93.79

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185 ±20.5

5145WolfBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 23.8Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9750ED Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 30.52Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6722LED Robotics

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 2.24Rank 54Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.5 ±16.4

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 43.44Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 35.57Rank 10Record 5-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8057All Wired Up

Provisional

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 14.78Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5145, 9750, 6722

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5145, 9750, 6722

Auto

2.4 5%

Teleop

54.4 100%

Endgame

-8.9 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8324, 8817, 8057

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8324, 8817, 8057

Auto

10.5 11%

Teleop

55.2 59%

Endgame

28.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56.6pts

Blue projected score93.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.2
Score range: 40–111
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 94.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185Season APEX337.5

2.4Auto10.5

54.4Teleop55.2

-8.9Endgame28

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	19
teleop	0	138
endgame	10	52
foul	5	0
total	30	209

Result

Final score

30 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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