Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.4 – 72.62

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 56.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.1 ±17.7

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 0.91Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 19.37Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

6322OneClay ARMORY

Provisional

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX -0.88Rank 45Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.1 ±19.7

11103Redshift Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 0.08Rank 26Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 32.25Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 40.29Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5842, 4622, 6322

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5842, 4622, 6322

Auto

9.0 46%

Teleop

4.7 24%

Endgame

5.8 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11103, 9160, 5816

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11103, 9160, 5816

Auto

10.1 14%

Teleop

39.4 54%

Endgame

23.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score19.4pts

Blue projected score72.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.2
Score range: 2–90
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 95.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.1Season APEX160.1

9Auto10.1

4.7Teleop39.4

5.8Endgame23.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	18
teleop	51	14
endgame	32	10
foul	0	0
total	101	42

Result

Final score

101 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 56.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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