Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

11.83 – 8.8

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

45 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.3 ±22.5

155712 Volt Bolt

Provisional

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 4.15Rank 51Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11363Pickle Squad

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 4.57Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11282Tri-Force

Provisional

Season APEX 62Event APEX 3.11Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.8 ±18.2

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 20.28Rank 46Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

7500MARAUDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -9.9Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX -1.58Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1557, 11363, 11282

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1557, 11363, 11282

Auto

7.2 53%

Teleop

1.3 10%

Endgame

5.0 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10228, 7500, 10981

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10228, 7500, 10981

Auto

9.8 100%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

-4.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score11.8pts

Blue projected score8.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3
Score range: -9–30
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 61 vs event baseline 100.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.3Season APEX178.8

7.2Auto9.8

1.3Teleop0

5Endgame-4.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	7
teleop	23	9
endgame	6	0
foul	0	0
total	45	16

Result

Final score

45 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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