Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.81 – 73.14

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.6 ±17.3

9728Rebel Robotics-BGCCF Joe R Lee Branch

Provisional

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 5.02Rank 33Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 2.69Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10323DeMolay Dynamics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 72.1Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.4 ±13.9

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 47.43Rank 5Record 6-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 21.14Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7072O.G.R.E. (Opelika's Greatest Robotics Engineers)

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 4.57Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9728, 386, 10323

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9728, 386, 10323

Auto

21.2 28%

Teleop

49.7 65%

Endgame

5.0 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8841, 744, 7072

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8841, 744, 7072

Auto

11.7 16%

Teleop

45.4 62%

Endgame

16.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.8pts

Blue projected score73.1pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.7
Score range: 55–98
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 100.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.6Season APEX378.4

21.2Auto11.7

49.7Teleop45.4

5Endgame16

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	16
teleop	15	88
endgame	23	26
foul	5	0
total	59	130

Result

Final score

59 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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