Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.29 – 29.44

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

22 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.4 ±17

4024TechnoSaints

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 8.57Rank 35Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2797Knight & Nerdy

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 78.86Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 12.86Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.7 ±19.3

10211Cyber Colts

Season APEX 56Event APEX 6.3Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10017GPS Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 8.57Rank 57Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7431Wingspan

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 14.57Rank 58Record 1-6-1Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4024, 2797, 1592

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4024, 2797, 1592

Auto

23.2 23%

Teleop

51.1 52%

Endgame

24.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10211, 10017, 7431

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10211, 10017, 7431

Auto

15.0 56%

Teleop

14.8 55%

Endgame

-2.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.3pts

Blue projected score29.4pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.9
Score range: 11–118
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 39 vs event baseline 98.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.4Season APEX199.7

23.2Auto15

51.1Teleop14.8

24.6Endgame-2.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	11
teleop	15	4
endgame	5	2
foul	0	0
total	22	17

Result

Final score

22 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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