Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109.19 – 108.33

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 84.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.2 ±13.5

2152S*M*A*S*H

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 39.43Rank 44Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 46.62Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 23.14Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.5 ±21.4

9670The Gadgeteers of St. Johns County

Provisional

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 49.71Rank 39Record 2-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 70

5993Istech Robotics Society

Provisional

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 46.62Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

431PinkZilla

Provisional

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 12Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2152, 10219, 8159

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2152, 10219, 8159

Auto

25.3 23%

Teleop

62.3 57%

Endgame

21.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9670, 5993, 431

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9670, 5993, 431

Auto

14.1 13%

Teleop

78.6 74%

Endgame

14.1 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109.2pts

Blue projected score108.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.9
Score range: 92–125
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 89.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.2Season APEX237.5

25.3Auto14.1

62.3Teleop78.6

21.6Endgame14.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	17
teleop	141	70
endgame	46	52
foul	0	5
total	242	144

Result

Final score

242 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 84.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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