Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.65 – 39.79

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 37.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154 ±20

11103Redshift Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -Rank 26Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

155712 Volt Bolt

Provisional

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX -Rank 51Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 45.43Rank 24Record 4-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.1 ±18.2

6473Rock Star Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX -Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5145WolfBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX -Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3627The Jungle Robotics

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 8.57Rank 53Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11103, 1557, 1523

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11103, 1557, 1523

Auto

16.8 22%

Teleop

43.0 56%

Endgame

16.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6473, 5145, 3627

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6473, 5145, 3627

Auto

12.5 31%

Teleop

19.0 48%

Endgame

8.2 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76.7pts

Blue projected score39.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.9
Score range: 23–94
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 93.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154Season APEX189.1

7.4Auto3.1

27.4Teleop3.4

10.6Endgame2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	13
teleop	14	26
endgame	9	11
foul	0	20
total	32	70

Result

Final score

32 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 37.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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