Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.52 – 189.06

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 429 ±14.1

10323DeMolay Dynamics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 22.64Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 236.17Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2797Knight & Nerdy

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX -9.29Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352 ±19.3

9750ED Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 5.09Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 151.25Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9670The Gadgeteers of St. Johns County

Provisional

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 32.72Rank 39Record 2-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10323, 180, 2797

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10323, 180, 2797

Auto

53.5 21%

Teleop

140.9 56%

Endgame

55.5 22%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9750, 179, 9670

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9750, 179, 9670

Auto

22.0 12%

Teleop

119.3 64%

Endgame

44.6 24%

Strengths

· 179 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score249.5pts

Blue projected score189.1pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.5
Score range: 165–274
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 130.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

429Season APEX352

53.5Auto22

140.9Teleop119.3

55.5Endgame44.6

0Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	6
teleop	153	152
endgame	69	11
foul	0	5
total	276	174

Result

Final score

276 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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